Last time we took a look at all the eagles losses this ridiculous offseason, and tried to judge the changes in terms of what they did for the team. We however weren't just looking at the on the field product but rather the impact of each change on the state of the organization, monetary considerations, Scheme Fit, Chip's vision. All aspects of a transaction are important to accurately analyze the value of the transaction, we did the losses last time, this time let's look at our gains.
LB Brad Jones - Depth addition. Jones is a physically talented linebacker who hasn't realized the promise he showed as a rookie. But look at what you want from him, he wasn't brought in to be a starter, he wasn't brought in to solve problems at a position. He is here to insulate against injury, and to provide value on special teams (perhaps lessen the loss of contributors there like Casey). The focus on maintaining consistently high quality special teams is potentially going to be a huge strength of Kelly, and a benefit to Eagles fans everywhere. Neutral - he seems like a quality addition, young enough with some upside but for what he is, depth and Special teams he can't be such an important contributor to rate as super impact at this juncture.
LB Kiko Alonso - Somewhere Chip Kelly must have a giant vault of gold coins he swims around in for fun, because his #duckbias is so strong he must secretly be Scrooge McDuck, and we are all living a duck tail. Seriously though, do you want this guy in an exchange for shady? Easy answer no. Shady is blatantly the more talented player. Like all things however this is not as simple as talent. First off Alonso is a Linebacker, and the historical comparisons indicate they age much better then RB's, Alonso is also a much cheaper player right now, and his injury gives him a much higher value because now he is a restricted free agent when his rookie contract is over, not a full free agent. Also, to run a successful 3-4 defense talented linbackers are a priority to make it work, and Look at what the Eagles have now: OLB Brandon Grahm ( a darling of PFF because his rate stats on pressuring the QB are elite) ILB Mychal Kendricks ( a supreme physical talent who has been putting it together to play at a star if not elite level) ILB Kiko Alonso ( a supremely talented ILB coming off a rookie of the year award, not the official one, who put up great stats and can really cover TE's a premium skill in the pass happy NFL) and OLB Connor Barwin (perhaps the epitome of versatile balanced LB, he does everything above average, and sometimes everything at a star level) That is a nasty group of relatively young LB who could dominate the league in our defense for years. Positive - the injury is a concern, the interceptions bunched at the beginning of his rookie campaign might be a concern, but the combination of cost/risk/reward makes his addition a spectacular one, even if it makes you wonder if Chip Kelly only communicates through quacks.
CB Byron Maxwell - In bars and basements everywhere in Philadelphia, Eagles fans are sacrificing cheesesteaks to the gods of football in hopes that this is not a repeat of #Dreamteam and Namdi Asomuagha. Let me calm your fears, first Maxwell is not married to the star of Scandal, so he probably needs the money to maintain his lifestyle. Second this is not a case of the Eagles signing a star to fix all their problems. Maxwell is obviously highly regarded as part of a unit, not as an individual player per se. When you get to play with Sherman, and Thomas, and Chancellor obviously you will appear better then you are. But don't assume Maxwell has no talent, or is a some scrub who was elevated by those around him, he is a solid above average CB in his own right, and in fact does some things better then his opposite Sherman. The second reason not to freak out about this signing is that it is obvious the eagles targeted Maxwell because of his talent AND his scheme fit. You can see an excellent breakdown on Birds24/7 as to how Maxwell fits what the eagles do, but the fact they it is obvious how he fits their scheme/desire for CB's makes this signing a much better get then the spreee of 2011 group. Look, the eagles overpayed, but the cap is always going up, and sometimes you do have to overpay to settle a position that has been a cesspool for so long, as long as you do so with detailed knowledge of what the player brings it is ok. Positive - This is an overpay for Maxwell, but it was necessary to bring some stability to the defensive backfield, and his presence can elevate whomever they put on the other side, and at safety making each individual piece contribute to the betterment of the group as a whole.
CB Walter Thurmond - # DuckBias, #Seahawkseast, #WTF? seriously though, Thurmond isn't a bad get on the cheap. He is a talented guy, who fits the Eagles style of defense and brings some versatility (he is comfortable in the slot) He isn't too expensive, is on a 1 year prove it deal and gives the eagles some options. Maybe we can finally use his presence to let us see Boykin on the outside, or maybe his presence leads the eagles to trade Boykin for picks or as part of a package for Mariota, or maybe we just have some excellent competition for two spots on the defense between Boykin, Thurmond, Carrol and Watkins. The only way this doesn't work is if he gets hurt, or he plays so damn well we can't afford him cause we overpayed for maxwell. Neutral - Honestly if Boykin ends up on the outside this becomes a clear positive because I can't believe he isn't talented enough for that, and if Boykin ends up traded because of this in some sick draft day deal it also could end up being a positive. But right now it appears as simply a solid depth signing, the kind of things that good teams do because it could work out great, or not hurt you enough to screw you over.
RB Ryan Matthews - Ryan is a good get, talented, young, not too expensive. He was one of the two best RB in football running out of the shotgun (Guess who the other one was) he is injury prone, but I'm getting the sense that Chip is trying to do two things here, 1 insulate himself from injury by having multiple backs, and betting on his sports science to give him an edge. The first is a reasonable approach, and the second is the kind of things smart coaches do, you run risks on what you believe in. It may not work, but it is the only way to approach building a team to develop a philosophy and embrace it. If you don't believe in yourself you will never win. Positive - If you told me the Eagles saved cap room, got Ryan Matthews, to replace McCoy and added Kiko Alonso I would have jumped for Joy at how brillian the Chippah was, a backfield of Polk, Sproles, Matthews, and Practice squad player/Rookie to be named later would be a good one.
RB Demarco Murray - ugh. Okay lets start with the good Demarco is an awesome running back, not quite Shady in terms of talent, but in some ways better. Demarco was one of the two best running backs in football running out of the shotgun last year (now they both play for us) Demarco thrived in an uptempo offense in college, Demarco is like best friends with our new QB, Demarco potentially rip defenses apart in our offense, even if they stack the box. Now let's start with the bad. Ummmmm, hey Demarco, that was a lot of carries last year do you have any legs left? speaking of legs, are there other ways you imagine they could be injured? cause you have quite a few already. Oh yeah 18 million garaunteed? Holy Shit man. Look Demarco is awesome, he is a great back with a ton of talent, who fits what chip wants better then Shady ever would. But you can't ignore three things about this signing, 1. cost he and Matthews are really expensive, 2. Injury the 370 carries thing is probably bunk, and he has lass carries in his career then Shady, by a lot. But he has been hurt a lot, and it's great we prepped for that with matthews or maybe #sportsscience saves us all, but man that is risky for 18/21 million guaranteed against the salary cap. 3. Chip is now trying to prove that he knows more then everyone by valuing running backs more then our current understanding of football says that we should, that is Ballsy and scary. Negative - He is expensive, injury prone, and just ran a lot for the stupid cowboys last year. There is few too many negative risks in this signing for me to let my faith in Chip overwhelm the concern.
QB Mark Sanchez - #Sanchize! Okay this won't be a popular opinion, but I like this. I personally wish that Matt Barkley had shown us enough to become the next god of Philadelphia football, but it ain't happening. So go ahead name a back up QB you would rather have then the Philadelphia Eagles version of Sanchez? Can't, right cause there isn't a better one in football. Listen we were doomed last year, no one wins enough to do anything special when your starting QB goes down for 8 games, but Sanchez was the best he has ever been in Kelly's system, and if we can have that guy for 2 or 3 games in case of emergency, totally a good investment. Particularly if you are hedging your bets on Mr. ACL, or looking for a quality veteran to have your rookie understudy. Either way this makes sense, and you get what you pay for. Just don't expect Sanchez to lead you to the superbowl. Positive - The sanchize ain't your savior, but he does bring quality to the worst position in football, backup QB.
OLB Brandon Grahm - I loved Trent Cole, almost bought his jersey. I spent the last three years waiting for the to trade Graham. He was a disappointing draft pick, he wasn't a scheme fit, he couldn't cover, it just seemed like there was an endless list of why he needed to go, and then he almost ended up with the Giants, across for Jason Pierre Paul. Good god I would have hated that. Look we got him on an entirely reasonable contract, his rate states for pressuring the QB are through the roof, even if they dip a bit with constant use he should still be elite in that category, he plays the run well, and he can cover enough to keep the offense guessing. But bottom line, this is a good guy, who has worked his ass off constantly to live up to his draft status, I believe he will be better then Cole and we will all be able to celebrate the guy who fought through challenge after challenge to finally live up to his potential. Positive - at the end of the day, I would bet money he is more productive then Trent cole, and before this contract is over ends up one of our more productive pass rushers.
QB Sam Bradford - Look this guy has no chance, He will never have a nickname as fabulous as Nickfolian Dynamite. Although upon further reflection who will? I loved Nick Foles, I wanted him to succeed so bad, but as last year wore on I became increasingly convinced he wouldn't, increasingly convinced that his ceiling was in reality significantly lower then his magical 27-2 run. Let's assume for a second that Bradford isn't really that good, that what he has shown us so far in his time in football is who he is. There would still be one thing he brings to the table that Nick didn't, Bradford doesn't turn the ball over, and that is obviously something Chip values. Bottom line, bad Bradford might run this offense better then Foles. Good Bradford has a lot more in terms of physical/mental tools then Good Foles, so this is good trade in terms of risk/reward even if on the surface we hate it. I also think our perception of value is skewed. I know a lot of people are pissed the Eagles took on a huge cap hit, gave up a 2nd round pick and Foles for Bradford, but that perception is skewed by the injuries, and the fact that football people still believe in the Bradford that was drafted, and not the one that was screwed by turnover and bad coordinators in St. Loius (seriously why do people keep hiring coaches who think running the ball with no risk is a wise decision?) Also, don't forget this is another #sportsscience gamble, where chip believe in himself and his program and thinks he can alleviate some injury concerns. Neutral - 27-2 is fresh in our minds, Nickfolian Dynamite is such a loveable guy with these moments that make you think he can be something special, but his bad moments should equally make us think he never will, and Bradford has way more potential then Nick. The only reason this isn't positive is because of three things 1. cost, 2. injury, 3. Mariota.
So what is it we have here is Chip an idiot or a genius?
I see this in stages
1st stage - all the additions/subtractions but Bradford/Murray - All of these make perfect logical sense, in terms of on the field/cap/considerations of fit with Chip's scheme this is a good offseason, with a lot of potential.
2nd Stage - Bradford. This is a high risk/high reward move. What if Foles is great in St. Louis? What if Bradford gets hurt? But what if this turns into a Drew Brees level Acquisition for the Eagles? Or what if Bradford really is Mariota Bait? Overall this transaction is painful but at worst neutral depending on what happens
3rd stage - Murray. WTF? seriously? after you traded McCoy to save cap space? If this was any other team with any other coach I would be laughing about how stupid they were.
As it is i can't decide if Chip is an idiot or a genius, but i can tell you it probably won't be anything in between. And at this point all we can do is hope, that whatever happens, whatever changes are still yet to come, we get the delicious fajitas tostitos and not a bag of cap cod chips that have been in the pantry for too long.
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