Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Potato Chip Kelly, Stale Cape Cod Chips, or Fresh Bag of Tostitos Fajitas Chips?

I've been an Eagles fan for every portion of my 34 years that I have followed sports (so being honest maybe 15 years?  I started life with a strong bend toward Nerddom)  Buddy Ryan, didn't care, Rich Kotite? HA.  Ray Rhodes?  I started to care a little but as I look back on it I hated him and was only intrigued because everything was so new.

Now Andy Reid, there was a man I could get behind.  At the time of his hire I had no Idea, I could only follow what was in the papers at the time of his hire, I didn't understand enough to form my own opinions, but as my knowledge of football grew my love of him was overpowering.  He was successful because he was smart, and that was an amazing thing for someone like me who loves sports like a nerd loves Dungeons and Dragons.  I want people to succeed because they aren't afraid to apply intelligence to a game that so often runs from its role.

I loved Andy, but when we let him go it was time to move on, and while it was sad it brought me the most exciting time of my life as a football fan, Chip Kelly.

Chip was a football guy, something I couldn't relate to really, but he was also all about knowledge.  Anything you want to do Chip wants the reason why, and he wants it backed up with evidence.  It was almost as if he had walked away from one of my science classes and applied the lessons to football.  I had never been so excited in my life, the football coach of the Philadelphia Eagles not only worked under the premise that "Big people beat up little people"  He also turned to australian scientists for their advancements in sports science, brought in college professors to address his team to discuss any number of concepts that might apply to success on the field.  He was some amazing combination of the Incredible Hulk, Iron Man, and Neil Degrasse Tyson.  I was in heaven.

His first season was a rousing success, his philosophies upended the game, it seemed like no one could keep up, and the only thing that ended the eagles dream season was the ultimate statistical bugaboo of bad plays at the wrong moment as time ran out.  But there was promise.

Season two started off with a bang, the eagles were 9-3, and winnin even with their backup quarterback, there was a feeling of invincibility as if nothing could stop Chip.  But reality set in, too many turnovers held back our offense, and no amount of genius from the headcoach can overcome mediocre quarterback play from your starter and your backup.  The Eagles ended the season 10-6 but out of the playoffs and a bit of the shine was off Chip.

That brings us to the topic of this blog post, the 2015 offseason and the great Chip Kelly Culling.  So Let's take a closer look shall we?

The lost, we shall remember you well

James Casey - All he Does is Catch Touchdowns!  Watching Eagles games you would thinkg James Casey was simultaneously the greatest and most underused weapon of all time.  In reality, he was a victim of the vagaries of the draft.  Signed two years ago to complement Brent Celek as a secondary tight end capable of blocking and receiving it was a good idea, until the draft came around and a brilliant recieving talent like Zach Ertz Falls into your lap, you cant help it you have to draft the awesome talent. Add to that the undrafted free agent addition of a superb bottom roster player like trey burton, and it just makes sense.  Net Change - Positive, not because losing his talent is good, but because being forced to play more Zach Ertz is.   

Trent Cole - The Axe Man is gone, off to hunt in the fertile fields of indianapolis.  Quietly I shed a single tear, because you can't have been an Eagles fan for the last decade and not have loved the Axe-Man.  But the NFL has a salary cap, and Trent's figure was well above the value he brought to the field.  Add to that the opportunity cost of him taking the role of Brandon Graham a younger potentially rising player, and I can't help but see this as addition by subtraction.  He was still a solid player but no where near worth the money.  Net Change - Positive.  It hurts to lose a great player at any point of his career, but the cap savings, and opportunities for Graham make this a positive change for now.  

Cary Williams - Mr. Sconce if you will?  Cary wasn't awful, and the Eagles needed to try something new with him and Fletcher at the time, but they also need to try something new now.  He wasn't worth his cap hit so losing him to free up money was A-OK  Net Change - Positive, but barely, and mostly for money and losing his odd sometimes good sometimes bad attitude in the locker room

Bradley Fletcher - Net Positive, no explanation necessary 

Nate Allen - Look, Nate was Ok, injuries and constant system change hurt him, but seriously Oakland?  Seriously?  Net Change - Positive, yes we need someone to play the position, but it was time to risk the strike out and swing for the fences instead of constantly bunting over and over again.

Lesean McCoy - Oof.  This one hurt.  Shady had a bad year, Shady was a god the year before.  Shady danced too much, Shady was expensive, Shady may have been the best back in football (argument with Peterson, but still)  Overall the trade is a positive, but the followup moves make it less of a quality change since what made it quality was the money vs. value concept.  But Alonso could be amazing.  Net Change - Neutral, it is a positive move in a vacuum against the cap, but the follow up moves are odd, and this can only be judged when we look at how Murray and Matthews work out.

Nick Foles - God I loved me some Nickfolian dynamite.  In 2013.  in 2014 I kept waiting for him to pick it up again, we saw flashes but we also saw a high level of poor decision making and happy feet.  I believed, I thought he could get better, and becomes Mr. 27-2 again.  But I also had serious doubts, and secretly was excited at first when he got hurt to see if maybe Dirty Sanchez could be better.  This hurts, and Not being able to wear that jersey anymore sucks.  It was probably time to move on, and I am inclined to believe Chip if he honestly thought the turnovers wouldn't stop because those were killer.  Net Change - Negative.  Bradford may be better, but he has a lot to live up to to meet Foles's best.  Between the things traded with him, and the difference in salary this one is tough to swallow, but all that said it could turn out the best of the bunch

Jeremy Maclin - Self Tackling Jeremy Maclin!.  I kid, he was always pretty awesome and more so last year.  Maclin has always produced quality numbers, even more so under Kelly, while only barely passing the eye test.  I wanted Maclin Back.  I wanted Matthews replacing Cooper, and Huff replacing Matthews, not Matthews replacing Maclin.  but Kansas city did the same thing with Maclin we did with Maxwell.  They Overpayed big.  They needed him, and he won't live up the contract, which is why letting him go sucks, and hurts bad, but makes total sense.  Net Change - Neutral, yes we are pretty thin at WR, but don't forget Ertz, Celek, and Sproles when considering who will catch the ball.  For 11 million he wasn't worth it.  But it is still tear worthy, at least half a cry.

Todd Herremans - The Toddfather, can he make us an offer we can't refuse? The Eagles line was a study in extremes.  Peters, Herremans and Mathis are OLD.  Kelce and Johnson, young and all stars.  Peters is a freak and probably will be playing an a pro-bowl level until his contract is over or injuries take him out.  But Herremans and Mathis?  Old and Guards, and expensive.  They are talented guys, but in a salary cap world replaceable.  Sort of, does the calculus change when Chip brings in Murray and Matthews for more power running?  I don't know.  Herremens was old, expensive and the injuries were starting to pile up.  If you see this as a purely business decision it makes sense (look at how little he got from Indy compared to what the Eagles had him on the books for)  yes Gardner, Barbre, Tobin. may all be a step down, but is it that much of a step down? is it going to hurt that much?  Will they draft a younger replacement?  Lots of questions around this move, but overall there aren't many looking at it confused and perplexed.  Net Change - Positive, saving some money and getting the line younger are important necessary steps for the long term health of the line and the team, even if we loved Todd for all these years.    

That is it for the losses, overall I'm still putting our Chip in the same bag as those wonderful Tostitos fajita chips, but next time we need to look at the gains so far and see where our chip really belongs

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